The median forecast was calculated based on the estimates of 16 analysts surveyed by Reuters on April 6 and 7.
A Reuters poll released on Tuesday indicated that Egypt’s annual urban inflation rate is expected to have increased to 14.7% in March, up from 13.4% in February, driven by the economic fallout from the war involving Iran, which has led to higher fuel prices and a weaker currency.
The median forecast was calculated based on the estimates of 16 analysts surveyed by Reuters on April 6 and 7.
The Central Agency for Public Mobilization and Statistics (CAPMAS), is scheduled to release the official March inflation data on Thursday.
Egyptian authorities say the country’s energy import bill has more than doubled since the conflict began on February 28, prompting the government to implement a series of price increases.
On March 10, fuel prices were raised by as much as 17% across a wide range of products.
The government also allowed the Egyptian pound to depreciate to around EGP 54.4 per U.S. dollar , compared with EGP 47.9 before the conflict, a move analysts say has pushed up the cost of imported goods.
Meanwhile, the Ministry of Electricity announced plans to increase tariffs for certain residential and commercial consumption brackets starting in April.
Annual inflation has declined significantly from a record 38% in September 2023, supported by Egypt’s $8 billion extended loan agreement with the International Monetary Fund in March 2024.
However, the Central Bank of Egypt recently paused its year-long monetary easing cycle, keeping overnight interest rates unchanged at its April 2 meeting, citing regional conflict and rising inflation in February.
Four analysts also projected that core inflation, which excludes highly volatile items such as certain food products and fuel, would rise to an average of 14.25%, compared with 12.7% in February.
